Regina’s 10 Year Plan is up for review this year, and will be released to the public on Tuesday. When the plan was launched, the board promised that by the plan’s final year, the number of elementary schools with over 400 students would be reduced from 7 to 5, and there would be no highschools with more than 1,200 students. RealRenewal argued the plan was instead a recipe for overcrowding – which has turned out to be the case so far. In 2011 the plan’s projections were adjusted to from 5 to 14 elementary schools over 400, one highschool over 1,300, and one highschool near the upper mark at 1,100 students. 

RealRenewal also argued the budgets and construction schedules for replacement schools were unrealistic. This has turned out to be the case as well, with schools coming in at well over double their original budgets and several years behind schedule.

Below are the details.

Fewer, bigger schools

Under the 10 Year Plan, the trend is toward fewer, bigger schools. The plan projected just 5 schools would have more than 400 students by the end of the 10 year plan, 2 less than when the plan began. Four years later, there were 14 elementary schools projected to exceed 400 students by the end of the 10 Year Plan. The Plan stated there would be no high schools over 1,200. Four years later, that was adjusted to one high school of 1,300 and one high school near the upper limit, at 1,100.

Elementary schools over 400 – Start of 10 Year Plan

10 Year Plan Enrolment Assumptions versus Actual in first year of plan (2008)

6 projected, 7 actual

Original projection of schools over 400 by end of Plan (2018)

5 projected over 400, highest enrolment 668

Most Recent Projections (adjusted in 2011)

14 projected over 400, highest enrolment 923

Capital Construction

The 10 Year Plan was accompanied by an ambitious capital plan to build larger merged schools (see p. 34 of the plan). RealRenewal argued that the cost estimates and timelines were unrealistic. This has proven to be so.

Two schools mentioned in the 10 year plan have been constructed. However, they were both announced and planned in advance of the 10 year plan, so were not considered to be replacements for the schools that are being closed. As for the new schools that were to arise from the ashes of school closures only one, Seven Stones (formerly Wascana-Herchmer), is under construction as of 2013.

The capital costs for the 2 new schools:

Douglas Park School (new school)

Originally scheduled to open in 2009, opened in Sept. 2012.

Estimated cost in 2007: $8.05 million.
Source: 10 Year Plan p. 34 (Capital Renewal Strategy)

Estimate in 2011: $17.3 million
Source: Enterprise Sask. list of construction projects

Final tab in 2012: $19.6 million
Source: Government of Saskatchewan

Arcola School (replacement of an existing school)

Originally scheduled to open in 2010, grand opening was January 2013 (but I believe the students moved over in November 2012).

Estimate in 2007: $8.05 million.
Source: 10 Year Plan p. 34 (Capital Renewal Strategy)

Estimate in 2011: $15.3 million
Source: Enterprise Sask. list of construction projects

Final tab in 2012 $19.2 million
Source: Government of Saskatchewan

Seven Stones Community School – The first of the replacement schools, intended to take in the students of Herchmer School, closed in 2008, and Wascana School. Right now the students are combined in Wascana-Herchmer, which will close when Seven Stones opens. It is still under construction.

Originally scheduled to open in 2011-12. Is currently under construction.

Estimate in 2007: $8.05 million
Source: 10 Year Plan p. 34 (Capital Renewal Strategy)

2012 estimate: $15 million
Source: Reed Construction News

No final price tag available yet.

10 Year Plan documents and background.